Just eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
